[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 MB LOW ROUGHLY
CENTERED NEAR 14N56W OR ABOUT 305 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT NOT A WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N52W
THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW TO 10N58W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 51W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 50W-56W AND
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 12N54W TO 14N52W. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW NEAR 8 KT. INTERESTS IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N31W TO 9N28W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS
WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN SAHARAN DUST THUS LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND WITH DRY
STABLE AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE ARE NO SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 14N19W 7N35W 14N47W
11N58W 10N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS MEANDERING ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND AT
0000 UTC EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ALONG THE COAST FROM PENSACOLA
FLORIDA TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS THEN BACK
INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR VERMILION BAY THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS
NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ALONG 26N87W TO 26N92W
WITH A SECOND TROUGH FURTHER TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES CONTINUING SW TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR
TAMPICO TO NEAR 27N85W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING
THE E HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH SW GEORGIA TO THE UPPER FLORIDA
KEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE
GULF BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGHS E OF 88W AND FROM 24N-26N E OF
82W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
S OF 29N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF WATERS N OF 25N
TO INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. AND S OF 25N W OF 95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 73W
ANCHORED NEAR 16N82W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA FROM 77W-83W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 82W FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA.
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUE/EARLY WED WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE LOW E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT
HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N76W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA
NEAR 23N80W TO 31N76W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N78W TO BEYOND 32N72W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH
33N18W AND A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 30N23W...
26N39W...31N58W...TO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW NEAR 26N71W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ALONG 24N74W TO 28N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N70W TO 28N68W AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 54-63W. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE REGION W OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE





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