[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
36W/38W FROM 16N TO 23N DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS
WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 37W/38W TROPICAL
WAVE. THE TROUGH HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE
SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE
TROUGH MORE THAN IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

...THE ITCZ...

13N16W 10N20W 7N30W 8N37W 8N50W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS
NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE CENTER ACTUALLY IS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N BETWEEN 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 98W IN MEXICO. THIS
AREA ENCOMPASSES PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTERIOR MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 80W AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...ACROSS GUATEMALA...
INTO MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 100W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 25N94W
TO 19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 19N98W...AND
CONTINUING AS STATIONARY TO 25N101W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 27N100W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS PUSHED INTO AREA...TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 12N70W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC
CENTER. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N69W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 18N56W 16N61W 15N66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
25N55W AND 20N56W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS ALONG 32N44W 27N50W 23N60W 23N70W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF 30N WITH TIME.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH THE TROUGH
AND NOW IT COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N42W 28N46W
23N53W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W.

$$
MT



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