[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 55W-58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 74W-79W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N26W 11N50W 12N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-28W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W...
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 51W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. 20-25
KT N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FROM 28N80W TO BEYOND 30N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. SE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO
FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
TEXAS AND N MEXICO W OF 100W SUPPORTING THE NW GULF COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W.
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE
IS NEAR BARBADOS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 79W-85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 999 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N60W
25N70W 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER SPAIN NEAR 40N6W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N25W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

$$
FORMOSA



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