[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 300627
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 11N TO 21N
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W. THE CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ARE BEING SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WINDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 30W
AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ...

10N13W 7N27W 10N40W 11N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 31W...AND
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS IN EAST TEXAS...STILL INLAND
ENOUGH...AND NOT YET REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA.
THE EARLIER CENTER THAT WAS TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA NOW HAS
BECOME TWO CENTERS...ONE IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND ONE IN
WESTERN NICARAGUA. THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM
GUADELOUPE TO 17N70W TO 18N82W IS FILLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
GUADELOUPE TO 18N82W LINE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N70W TO 28N69W TO THE FAR WEST.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 29N70W TO 29N80W...AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT
GOES FROM 31N30W TO 26N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

$$
MT





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