[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 17N MOVING N NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N24W 8N34W 12N50W
11N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
24W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-10N BETWEEN 39W-47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ ALONG 12N60W TO 8N61W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 26N80W TO 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 82W-85W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO OVER THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 88W-95W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
COVERING THE BASIN AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL CONUS AND MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FLOW ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE WITH SE WINDS REACHING 25 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF. EXPECT
THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SE GULF TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA
NEAR 22N85W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W IS PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S
FLORIDA TO ERN CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W OFF THE COASTS OF
PANAMA AND COAST RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN FLORIDA COAST FROM A
1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W CONTINUING ALONG 29N81W 26N80W TO
25N83W. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS DISSIPATING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
ALONG THE FRONT AXIS AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW N OF 29N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE S...E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTERED NEAR 16N58W IS
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
FROM 23N57W TO 23N62W. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING ALONG 24N31W 24N37W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH N OF 23N WITH AXIS ALONG 23N41W 27N28W CONTINUING N
ALONG 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E OF 50W.

$$
WALTON





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