[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. DAKAR SENEGAL UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING SHOWED A WAVE PASSAGE
WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WAVE
OFF THE COAST OF SENEGAL. A SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM IS ALSO NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 19N MOVING N NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
ON THE APEX OF A SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
48W-51W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 8N35W 12N52W 10N62W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 37W-43W...AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 43W-47W. A SMALL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF BARBADOS ALONG 59W FROM 9N-14N WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 24N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 80W-83W.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW GULF
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 93W-96W...AND FROM
23N-24N BETWEEN 90W-96W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF E OF
90W... AND 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE EASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE GULF WITH 70-90 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW...CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT...THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW
GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE E GULF WILL ALSO HAVE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ADVECT OVER FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W FROM
14N-21N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF JAMAICA FROM
15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 81W-83W.
ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA
FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE
CENTER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION W OF JAMAICA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR
31N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A
1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N51W. THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W 23N34W.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N23W 28N27W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT AND TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N61W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 30W-50W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W.

$$
FORMOSA





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