[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 8N24W TO 8N30W 8N50W TO 11N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
9N13W 7N30W 7N40W 8N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI BORDER INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N80W...
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO ABOUT 45 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TEXAS BORDER TO 27N103W INLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N77W 27N82W 25N90W
24N100W. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS FROM 20 KT
TO 25 KT STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. HURRICANE RICK IS SPREADING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 90W AND 103W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 92W AND 99W
INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO JAMAICA
TO THE AREA OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/GUATEMALA. AT LEAST
ANOTHER LOBE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF 19N...
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN HONDURAS...AND FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN WESTERN CUBA...
AND IN CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM PANAMA NEAR 10N80W TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W
FROM 10N TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
60W AND 63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG 70W IN NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER LONG WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N80W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 26N80W AT THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...28N72W...BEYOND 31N60W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N43W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N43W TO 26N47W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 26N28W
TO 21N29W TO 18N30W TO 10N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ONE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 30N22W. A 1013 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM
29N31W TO 29N26W TO 24N26W TO 19N36W TO 20N39W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER THE AREA FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W.

$$
MT





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