[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THIS WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA FROM 9N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 67W AND 68W...
AND FROM 10N TO THE COAST BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
REMAIN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 9N20W TO 7N30W 8N37W 7N46W TO 10N55W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL AFRICA FROM
8N TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 55W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 14N55W 12N56W 8N57W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N59W 11N61W 10N63W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF IN THIS AREA...
INCLUDING IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN MEXICO...FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...IN AN
AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EVEN HIGHER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF IT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM T.D. TWENTY-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS
BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE COAST FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO MEXICO
NEAR 100W. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST
INLAND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM FROM SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA TO 95W
IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS TO BE PART OF THE TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THAT REACHES EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND PARTS OF GUATEMALA...CAUGHT UP IN BROAD UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
18N52W TO NEAR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...TO A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N71W...TO 12N79W TO EL SALVADOR...
AND FINALLY POSSIBLY TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND ON SOME OF THE
ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 62W. THE MOST
NOTABLE ISLANDS FOR PRECIPITATION ARE PUERTO RICO...TO THE
WEST OF 70W IN HISPANIOLA...WESTERN JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N45W TO 28N55W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N55W TO
27N60W TO 31N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
31N69W. A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO
30N80W AND BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N45W TO 31N48W TO
26N57W AND 24N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
TO A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 27N31W TO 21N34W TO 12N37W.
WEAK TROUGHS ARE INTERCONNECTED TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N29W. ONE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
29N20W...CURVING WESTWARD TO THE LOW CENTER...AND EVENTUALLY
TO 28N35W. A SECOND TROUGH GOES FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO
26N26W AND CURVES TO 21N35W. THESE FEATURES ARE IDENTIFIABLE ON
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGH 15/1800 UTC. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W.

$$
MT



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