[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS AT
A LOW AMPLITUDE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N27W 8N37W 7N44W 10N55W
10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG
38W/39W FROM 5N-9N WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 52W FROM 9N-15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 9N-13N E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-39W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED OVER
N/CENTRAL MEXICO WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING E ACROSS EXTREME S
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE
AREA WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 87W AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS FAR NE FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N83W. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF
WATERS WILL BE ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC AND GULF OF
MEXICO IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN UPPER EASTERLY WINDS N OF A SHEAR
AXIS THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER
DOMINICA ALONG 13N74W TO W PANAMA NEAR 9N82W PRODUCING PATCHES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND JAMAICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S
COAST OF CUBA FROM 79W-82W AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W-82W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 73W AND IS SUPPORTING A 1007 MB
LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER.
A SECOND BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER TO THE E BUT N OF
30N FROM 45W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING ALONG 27N63W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 29N74W
THEN WARM TO THE 1007 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 27N58W TO BEYOND 32N47W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 70W. A WEAK 1015 MB
HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N40W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 30N W OF 50W
EXTENDING AN AXIS FROM ACROSS THE GULF OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA
ALONG 25N AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ABOVE. A BROADENING UPPER
TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE E ATLC N OF 15N FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO 50W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
32N22W 29N23W THEN W TO 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH NEAR 15N31W ALONG 20N48W INTO THE S CARIBBEAN OVER
DOMINICA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

$$
WALLACE






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