[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N46W TO 8N50W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS TILTED WITH SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPINNING
OFF TO THE NE CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER TROUGH. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE EXTENDING AS FAR N AS 18N42W.
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SEE
THE MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 10N47W 9N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 13N54W TO 8N55W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 18W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 37W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF AND APPEARS
TO MEANDERING OFF THE COAST TO INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO TEXAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST E OF 93W AND N OF 27N W OF 93W TO THE
TEXAS COAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER E ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE ATLC. THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE N
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...A REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS
FROM PUERTO RICO SW ALONG 17N71W THEN NE TO THE NE COAST OF
JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF
THE ATLC AND E GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN UPPER
EASTERLY WINDS N OF A SHEAR AXIS THAT ENTERS THE S CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA TO NICARAGUA NEAR
13N84W AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
78W-82W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH A SWATH OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF 17N FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW WATERS OF THE
CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO THE PANAMA COSTA RICA BORDER AND INTO
THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-83W.
VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN MAINLY FROM 11N-15N GIVING THAT AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W CONTINUING ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 45W WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N50W. A SURFACE HIGH
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W INTO THE
E GULF OF MEXICO. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGS S INTO THE E ATLC
NEAR 32N30W S TO 17N29W THEN EXTENDS W AS A SHEAR AXIS ALONG
14N40W OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR SAINT LUCIA INTO THE S
CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG
28N40W THEN W TO 27N51W AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
E ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING ALONG 26N32W TO
24N40W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 17N51W TO JUST E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 34W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net