[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 16N
DRIFTING WESTWARD. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N. A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY BETWEEN 34W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 36W-40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S 18N MOVING W 15
KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 73W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 77W-80W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 14N39W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 11W-13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N81W TO 29N87W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N93W 24N95W 19N96W 22N99W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 90W-95W...AND FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 94W-97W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
FAIR WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT SW FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION W OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA W OF 81W. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1017 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N79W. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W. THE REMNANTS OF HENRI IS NOW
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N71W 18N73W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N31W 29N32W 23N40W
18N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
33N34W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 13N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS
NEAR 10N20W.

$$
FORMOSA



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