[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 20N35W 9N39W MOVING NW 15-20 KT.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD AS
WELL AS THE SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHILE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
DEPICTED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 68W-71W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. SEE
MIATWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N22W 11N37W 6N51W 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 11W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY EXTENDING ALONG 27N89W 26N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
NEAR TUXPAN THEN ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAINLY OVER THE NE US WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
THE GULF BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM NW
OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N93W INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SW GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC DOMINATES THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM W PANAMA TO E CUBA NEAR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH. THIS COMBINATION IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 83W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO  THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE
ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 78W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
NEAR 29N71W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC N OF 23N W
OF 56W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A 1021 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR
31N66W. THE REMNANTS OF HENRI...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
21N68W CONTINUING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM SW OF THE CENTER. A BROAD
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 25N43W
TO 23N51W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N57W TO 23N63W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF
THE FRONT E OF 41W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 200
NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 41W-52W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
150 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH ENE OF THE AZORES THROUGH
32N21W TO 20N30W.

$$
WALLACE





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