[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090615 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGERY...AND THROUGH 0530 UTC
FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE 1013 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HENRI IS NEAR
21N63W MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. EVEN SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING. THE REMNANT LOW CENTER IS IN AN AREA
OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
THIS REMNANT CENTER ALSO IS JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
20N61W...AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
24W AND 29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH OF 23N MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF
16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXPERIENCING UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N16W TO 12N24W TO 6N42W TO 6N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN
28W AND 37W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N40W
7N44W 8N53W 18N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W ARE BEING PUSHED
WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N74W.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 12N77W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA GUATEMALA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE COMPLETELY SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N51W TO 22N55W TO 19N62W. THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 19N62W APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHEAR AXIS...TO THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N38W TO 22N37W
TO 19N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN
36W AND 38W.

$$
MT






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