[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 08 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 62.2W AT
08/2100 UTC...OR ABOUT 165 MILES...260 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE THE LAST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR HENRI UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 23W S OF 15N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW
CYCLONIC CURVATURE S OF 13N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...HOWEVER SAHARAN DUST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AROUND
THE WAVE. DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 10N E OF 30W TO THE W AFRICA
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS DO MANAGE TO BE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 22 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE NEAR
THE WAVE AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 55W-64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN
54W-60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 60W-62W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE LIES IN A VERY BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 15N AS OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER WELL W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 79W-86W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 12N23W 7N30W 5N40W 4N52W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 26W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A FEW CELLS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITHIN 15 NM OF 21.5N89W. 5-10 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE E
GULF...WHILE 15-20 KT SE FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N
FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SE RETURN FLOW TO PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND BELIZE BETWEEN 17N-20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. EXPECT...MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W...AND OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 67W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVES
MOVES W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W
30N70W 29N78W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W.
THE REMNANTS OF HENRI IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. A
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N44W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N36W 26N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 27N39W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N26W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 14N50W.

$$
FORMOSA





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