[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM HENRI IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 58.6W AT 07/2100
UTC...OR ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. HENRI HAS AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH
CONVECTION WELL E OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 53W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...ALONG WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 6N40W 9N50W 9N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WSW TO THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED 60 NM INLAND OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER THE E GULF...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF NEAR 26N96W MOVING E. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE INLAND COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 77W-83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
83W-88W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
76W-83W. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E
OF 70W N OF 12N. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N87W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM HENRI REMAINS THE BIGGEST WEATHER MAKER OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N43W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N34W. BOTH HIGHS ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N17W.

$$
FORMOSA





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