[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 41W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
41W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 55W-59W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N26W 9N42W 7N50W 9N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
12W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM NEAR 31N82W
TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N89W CONTINUING
AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS LOUISIANA AND TEXAS ALONG 30N96W
30N101W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS FRONT/LOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 87W-93W...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS GENERALLY CALM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG 25N. LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT IN THE
WRN AND CENTRAL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 22N95W. EXPECT
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W...SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 9N81W IS
ENHANCING SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 22N65W TO 17N66W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-66W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER
WINDS IN THE SW AND ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 58W TO REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND OFF THE N COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
29N W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL ZONE N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE GULF STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N67W TO 27N72W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 65W-68W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N61W TO 28N65W
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 30N.
BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 31N62W TO HAITI NEAR 19N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE BASIN W OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N65W ACROSS PUERTO
RICO TO 17N66W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 20N
BETWEEN 61W-68W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS NEAR 31N54W. TO THE
E...A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N42W T0 28N51W. NO
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR
15N26W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE E SIDE OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES
ALONG 44W.

$$
WALTON






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