[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040009
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS IS A WELL DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. BROAD
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS NOTED TOGETHER WITH A SSMI DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N
OF N COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 74W-77W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N32W 7N40W 9N50W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT IS JUST INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SE TEXAS ALONG 30N83W 30N94W DRIFTING N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 96W-98W. 10-15 KT
SURFACE SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FAIR
SKIES ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 20N98W.
NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT
TO BECOME STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT SOME CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST ON VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER INLAND PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER INLAND NICARAGUA FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
84W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING
NORTHERLY FLOW W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN S OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO SHIFT CONVECTION SLOWLY TO THE W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 70W-76W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N43W
29N50W 26N55W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 46W-50W. ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 28N38W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 35W-38W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N42W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N21W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N56W T0 13N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 57W-59W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W.
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM 20W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N23W.

$$
FORMOSA





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