[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 25W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE.
HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-23W...AND FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW
SUBSIDED. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
37W-43W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N21W 11N27W 9N33W
11N41W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AT THE AFRICA COAST FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 14W-16W...AND FROM
6N-11N BETWEEN 34W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM E OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 27N97W
CONTINUING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NRN GULF N
OF 28N. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 400
NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF AND NRN
FLORIDA. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N105W. A SHORT
WAVE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS S
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SE THROUGH THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS CALM AND CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS ERN CUBA WITH AXIS ALONG 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
E OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N64W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 28N
W OF 77W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N62W EXTENDING TO 27N76W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 69W-78W. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 77W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS NEAR 25N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
29N40W TO 17N50W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 51W-55W...AND BETWEEN 40W-47W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N52W TO
14N54W. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR
16N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH DIPS INTO THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUING FROM A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG
31N23W TO 28N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 13N27W.

$$
WALTON






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