[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021054
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N. STRONG ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN ONE OF THE CLUSTERS OF STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT COVERS THE
AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ON TOP OF THIS AREA...ADDING TO THE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE EAST IS THE PRIMARY SOURCE
OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR THE PRECIPITATION THAT
ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 12N17W TO 7N30W 8N44W 11N55W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N63W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N13W 9N30W 12N41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS DIGGING AND DIGGING AND TAKING UP
LOTS OF SPACE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS SENDING A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO COVER THE
AREA FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GUIDING
THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS AUTUMN IS ALONG THE LINE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND BEYOND 18N80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS
TO ANDROS ISLAND TO 18N80W...AND THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO
14N81W.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE
PART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA
AND IT IS DEFLECTED RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.
THE REMNANTS OF T.D. EIGHT HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 63W
FROM 15N TO 20N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS
COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GOES FROM 31N64W TO 28N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND BEYOND 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE BAHAMAS TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N48W TO 18N49W
TO 10N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N
TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE ITCZ
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE FACT THAT THIS AREA HAPPENS TO BE AT
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N33W TO
17N35W TO 10N40W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF
50W. THIS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N23W 29N30W 29N47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W
AND 40W.

$$
MT






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