[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND...GOES-12 SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-8 IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA
COAST FROM 6N TO 9N...FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W...FROM
3N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 41W...AND FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N85W...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH
IS PUSHING THE FEW REMAINING SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOWERS
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE BERRY ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO 23N84W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA LITERALLY IS
PUSHED ALONG TO THE EAST BY THE RUSH OF AIR FROM THE VORTICITY
AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
25N85W. A REMNANT AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN OLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD
HISPANIOLA. AN EARLIER LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM ONE
END OF HISPANIOLA TO THE OTHER END HAS WEAKENED TO JUST ONE
AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN MONA PASSAGE
AND ONE AREA OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HAITI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N85W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N70W TO 25N80W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N80W TO 23N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH THAT IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. EIGHT
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO CONTINUES AS A TROUGH FROM 16N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 15N TO 25N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
SPINNING AROUND A 37N31W CYCLONIC CENTER. LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W,
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN
30W AND 40W.

$$
MT






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