[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 5N27W 4N40W...INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
3N52W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 40W AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS
LAGGING BEHIND THE SURFACE FEATURE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
SUPPORT TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH INDIANA/ILLINOIS/MISSOURI.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN WEST TEXAS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 22N106W ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS AND BEYOND LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.
SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURVING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE FRONT NORTHWESTWARD
TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 23N60W TO 20N70W...AND INTO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 70W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AROUND A RIDGE THAT ORIGINATES OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH...THAT REACHES THE
MONA PASSAGE...SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH
32N47W TO 26N55W TO 23N60W TO 20N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO 19N76W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TROUGH. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N48W 26N47W BEYOND 32N44W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST
OF 40W.

$$
MT





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