[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300520
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N25W 4N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 18W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A 1022 MB
HIGH IN THE WRN ATLC NEAR 31N62W. E TO SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 10 KT
ARE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL GULF...WHILE SE TO S WINDS UP TO 15 KT
COVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN. MOST OF THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CONUS AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE NRN GULF NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS N OF 27N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
SE TEXAS TO REACH THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS. STRONG
NLY WINDS WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S OF E CUBA FROM 20N74W TO
19N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONT
AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 70W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
16N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND A PAIR
OF UPPER RIDGES OVER THE W AND E CARIBBEAN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 70W
IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS N OF 23N BETWEEN 61W-69W.
FARTHER E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N47W CONTINUING ALONG 25N56W
21N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT FROM 21N51W TO 27N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 23N BETWEEN
42W-48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT AND FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 63W-68W. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 50W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 35N28W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E
PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
WALTON




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