[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 3N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 31W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N72W PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27W AND W OF 85W. A COLD FRONT IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTH LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA
TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 19N83W 16N86W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER
W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...BELIZE... AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 86W-90W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...AND OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO 23N60W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 45W-48W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE
THE S BAHAMAS. A 1028 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS E OF 50W BETWEEN 15N-30N
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO
TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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