[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282322
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 2N40W 2N53W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-22W...
AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31M85W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO INCLUDE S TEXAS...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...CONTINUED
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND
MEXICAN COASTS W 0F 94W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A
NEW COLD FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH INLAND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO
BEYOND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 20N74W 20N81W 18N84W. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
FURTHER W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM
14N-20N BETWEEN 84W-91W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-85W...AND OVER THE STATIONARY
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER PANAMA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 24N64W
TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 23N...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A 1028
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N31W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 19N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
CENTER FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 44W-47W...AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
43W-46W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N47W IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA




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