[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N27W 4N39W 5N52W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 92W-96W AS NOTED
ON RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT EWD AS SLY RETURN FLOW
INCREASES OVER THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO
W JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W BECOMING STATIONARY TO E HONDURAS NEAR
14N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT
AXIS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS NW OF THE FRONT N OF HONDURAS FROM
16N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
ENTIRE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. N TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN
STATIONARY AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE SAT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ALONG THE FRONT AXIS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W CONTINUING ALONG 25N66W TO THE
FAR SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF
28N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CONNECTICUT TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 33N55W IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF
THE FRONT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
26N50W WITH AXIS EXTENDING S TO NEAR 15N50W IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-29N BETWEEN 44W-50W.
THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 16N55W TO 7N55W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 39N32W.

$$
WALTON





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