[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 6N37W 6N41W 7N57W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 39W FROM
4N TO 13N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-16N BETWEEN
25W-39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS N-NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 22N42W TO 10N47W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FURTHER
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT SKIRTS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM CORPUS CHRISTI S THROUGH BROWNSVILLE TO 23N97W. MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 92W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG 96W. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A
STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR
MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N85W 26N90W TO
24N93W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N
BETWEEN 83W-94W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF E OF 92W AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N
OF 18N BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AS STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONVERGE ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N
BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
MELBOURNE. THE FRONT LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N72W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS
COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 36N66W TO 31N58W
AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N
BETWEEN 54W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W N OF 25N AND SUPPORTS A
1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW ALONG 30N50W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N54W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE 1012 MB LOW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N45W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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