[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N12W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 4N52W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN
33W AND 35W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 3N TO 11N.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...IN ADVANCE
OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S.A. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS GUIDING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR
SO. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH AT 850 MB TO BE ON
A LINE FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE FRONT TO
HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO BY THANKSGIVING EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS NOW TO THE
NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 85W AND THE GULF COASTS OF EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AN INVERTED 850 MB TROUGH THAT STRETCHES
FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST
OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS
STRETCH FROM THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF GULF OF URABA
TO EASTERN NICARAGUA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 84W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N69W
TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL
COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...CLOSE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG
24N75W 20N74W. THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS
AND NOW ARE FROM 23N TO 27N WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. ONE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N50W BEYOND 32N48W. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 28N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N42W 25N46W 16N49W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N43W TO 27N48W AND 23N55W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N50W AND BEYOND 31N57W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH.

$$
MT







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