[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N25W 7N44W 7N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-32W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 12N42W TO 5N45W. THE CONVECTION COVERS AN
AREA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 39W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO
26N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
24N98W. 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN
VICINITY OF THE LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 90W-94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE S GULF. EXPECT THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A
WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT 15-20 KT N WINDS W
OF THE COLD FRONT AND 10 KT S WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT. ALSO
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER N FLORIDA AND
E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. A 1004 MB LOW
IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 75W-79W. PATCHES OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA NAMELY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF
62W...OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
17N-22N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 11N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS
PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ONLY OVER N COLOMBIA. EXPECT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF PUERTO RICO
ALONG 25N64W 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS. A LONG STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE ATLANTIC
ALONG 32N26W 29N33W TO AN EMBEDDED 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N51W TO
30N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 46W-52W...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 59W-68W. FURTHER E
...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM S PORTUGAL TO SW OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 25N27W. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEAVING THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE AREA S OF 30N. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 40W-55W DUE TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA






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