[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N11W 7N29W 7N50W 8N60W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29W FROM
3N TO 11N. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEPARATE THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION
FROM PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THIS TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 10N53W TO 17N59W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N...THANKS TO A MISSOURI/ILLINOIS/IOWA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS ON
TOP OF A 1015 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC CENTER PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N83W...TO JUST OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
22N89W AND CURVES TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 26N. NO
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N
TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
DISSIPATED. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF THE NOW-DISSIPATED IDA
COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N59W TO 16N60W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
15N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W. THE SHOWERS NEAR DOMINICA AND
GUADELOUPE HAVE DISSIPATED. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 21N62W TO 15N61W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA HAS
DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N60W 24N65W 21N69W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N52W
26N56W 19N59W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
39W AND 60W WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WERE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AT 19/0000 UTC. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
21N32W 19N36W 15N37W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 25N40W 20N45W 16N47W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER
THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N9W TO
SOUTHERN MOROCCO TO THE SOUTHERN WESTERN SAHARA...TO THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N40W. THIS TROUGH BORDERS THE ITCZ
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

$$
MT





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