[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N13W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 6N30W TO 7N45W 7N51W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED DISORGANIZED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N16W 7N30W 9N43W 14N59W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W
FROM 7N TO 14N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N53W 15N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE U.S.A. MIDWEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N...THANKS TO A
MISSOURI/ILLINOIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THAT IS ON TOP OF A 1011 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MISSOURI/ILLINOIS CYCLONIC CENTER
TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. A COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
WHOLE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 25N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO MEXICO BETWEEN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA THAT IS NEAR
27N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE 1009 MB REMNANT OF IDA
REACHES THE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA WITH THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N64W TO 17N65W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMNANT OF IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY
AND NOW IS NEAR 27N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE REMNANT
LOW CENTER OF IDA TO 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
25N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N18W TO THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N35W.

$$
MT



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