[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N34W 7N37W 7N45W 8N48W
7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
23W-37W MAINLY E OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 36W FROM
4N-12N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FOCUSED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 14N43W TO 6N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N88W. THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS E OF 91W. STRONGER SE RETURN FLOW...UP TO 20 KT...IS
OBSERVED IN SHIP AND BUOY DATA E OF 91W OVER THE WRN GULF.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
87W TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND MID-ATLC STATES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC AND
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
E-NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCING THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER N OF 18N E OF 76W. IT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA
NEAR 11N85W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD
ALONG 86W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FARTHER SOUTH...UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
13N BETWEEN 75W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 12N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N70W IN THE W ATLC WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N65W AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ALONG 28N64W TO 21N70W. MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS LOCATED E OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LARGELY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
AREA COVERING THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM 19N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 55W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-74W. FARTHER EAST...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N30W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING W-SW ALONG 26N35W TO 26N44W THEN CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N50W TO BEYOND 32N58W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED ENTERING
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS SW INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR 29N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 22W-30W. THIS ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
THE EASTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 20W-40W. FARTHER SOUTH
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N42W TO 10N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 36W-43W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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