[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N20W 6N30W 6N33W 7N39W
7N43W 6N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
22W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 31W FROM 5N-11N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 27W-32W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 12N39W TO 6N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 89W
ANCHORED ON A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N89W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
THE GULF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS E OF 89W AND SLY RETURN FLOW UP TO
15 KT W OF 89W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 25N90W
N-NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SE CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS NEAR 21N96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING A RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW SPREADING
EASTWARD AS WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS ERN CUBA NEAR
20N76W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 16N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH E OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 17N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALSO N OF 16N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THE BOUNDARIES ARE
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC NEAR 34N72W
THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-84W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N83W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH W-NW FLOW AND MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 65W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE W ATLC AND
CENTERED AS A 997 MB LOW NEAR 33N72W. THE LEADING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N66W TO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND THEN TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E FROM 30N63W TO
25N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER AN AREA E OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO 57W FROM 20N-32N. THIS CONVECTION IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N72W AND THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 19N. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 70W IS ALSO ENHANCING THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO
30N70W AND NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N69W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. TO THE E
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N27W
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW TO 28N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE
TO PREDOMINANTLY W-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW N OF 28N E OF 40W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL W-SW FLOW
WITH AXIS FROM 28N42W TO SURINAME IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 49W-55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN AFRICA THROUGH THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N47W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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