[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 7N22W 8N36W 8N38W
4N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21W FROM 5N-10N WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 21W-26W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 13N31W TO 10N36W TO 7N37W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN
30W-40W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
46W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAINLY NLY SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF
94W AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH 25N90W TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS
THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
FAIR SKIES. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD...WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH SELY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE WESTERN WATERS SATURDAY EAST OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W EXTENDING SW TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR
18N88W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH HOWEVER IS ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N77W CONTINUING
ALONG 17N80W TO 12N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N82W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BASIN EASTWARD TO 60W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-71W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W AND EXTENDS
S-SW ALONG 30N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. E OF THE FRONT A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N70W TO 25N73W AND OVER EASTERN CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N BETWEEN
66W-72W. THIS FRONT IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N77W AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIPPING TO 27N W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ALSO AIDING IN ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION. FARTHER E...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N65W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER FOCUSED ON A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 31N58W IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-60W.
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-70W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 32N TO 55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N27W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 43W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIPS TO 13N E OF 30W AND
CONTINUES SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-21N E OF 27W.

$$
HUFFMAN



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