[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 85.2W AT
11/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N30W 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 17W-32W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 38W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM VALDOSTA GEORGIA TO SARASOTA
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N84W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND
EXTEND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
WESTERN GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE FOUND AS DEPICTED BY BUOY AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA TO 19N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 75W AND LIKELY
INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E
PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS ALONG 6N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N65W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MOIST SWLY FLOW
AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND INTO THE WRN ATLC WATERS FROM ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS N OF 27N W OF 72W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LINKED TO THE REMNANT LOW OF
IDA CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N70W IS ALSO ENHANCING
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 26N66W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW TO 20N68W. EAST OF THE LOW AND SURFACE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 64W-69W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM N OF  THE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N65W TO 30N50W.
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT AS WELL AS MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
50W-63W. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. FARTHER EAST...A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS
ALONG 30N TO 38W AND THEN STATIONARY TO 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N44W.

$$
HUFFMAN





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