[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 86.8W AT
10/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 145 MILES W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH. HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND NOW
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 7N26W 6N42W 8N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
23W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ
ALONG 44W S OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMNANTS HAVE
FULLY UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AS OF 2100 UTC...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA ALONG 31N86W
25N86W 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W CONTINUING TO
17N90W. A SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM S OF CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W UP
THE WRN FLORIDA COAST ALONG 25N83W 28N83W 31N82W. THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE BASIN W OF 30N AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 30N
EXTENDING FROM S OF CUBA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 29N THROUGH WED. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA
AS FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WRN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SWATH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN FLORIDA COAST TO WRN
CUBA NEAR 23N84W CONTINUING TO 20N BETWEEN 82W-85W.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W
OF 80W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER WRN
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF
CUBA NEAR 18N83W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE MAJORITY
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S
OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-84W INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE E PACIFIC ITCZ LOCATED S OF PANAMA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN
E OF 71W WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N64W CONTINUING ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N65W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE WRN ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA NW OF A LINE FROM 27N80W TO 32N76W ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS LINKED TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...THE NW BAHAMAS...INTO THE WRN ATLC TO NEAR 32N70W. A 1009
MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 64W-67W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 240
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM
THE LOW ALONG 22N62W 19N64W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN
56W-60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG
27N59W 29N51W 31N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE ENTIRE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N66W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 37N16W..AND SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC.

$$
WALTON







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