[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 101435
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IDA HAS BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMMA-LIKE
APPEARANCE AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND SHOWED A 5F
TEMPERATURE DECREASE AFTER THE CENTER PASSED THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF ELEVATED MARINE STATIONS REPORTING
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 34 KT...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THESE
WINDS ARE SURFACE-BASED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED
OVER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/8.  GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON IDA
TURNING EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHOW ABSORPTION OF IDA BY
A NEW MID-LATITUDE LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IDA WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT BAROCLINIC LOW.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 30.6N  87.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  86.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.7N  84.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  82.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/CANGIALOSI
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