[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 88.8W AT 10/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 MILES SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 9 KT. LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA HAS
ENCOUNTERED A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN MOST OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL ALREADY SPREAD ONSHORE FROM MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA
BECOMING LIGHTER OVER GEORGIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA UP TO 175
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF N OF
26N E OF 86W AND N OF 28N E OF 90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N85W ACROSS CUBA E OF THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N84W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N31W 7N48W 8N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ FROM 18W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 24W-34W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM S OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE GULF
TONIGHT BUT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS
THE CENTRAL US AND MEXICO EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 85W
ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF W OF 86W. THUS ONLY
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE N GULF N OF
25N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR MELBOURNE AND INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM IDA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF LATER TODAY TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF IDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA. AN UPPER LOW IN THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NNE OF PUERTO RICO DIPS S OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF
13N E OF 77W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W
TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-18N E
OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ
JUST S OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA S OF 12N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED NNE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W COVERING THE AREA
BETWEEN 55W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE UPPER LOW NEAR 23N65W TO 30N54W.
A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N43W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N53W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W.
THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED N OF THE REGION.
AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ALONG 11W TO 55W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 16N58W
TO NEAR 26N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA
ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE




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