[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 080713
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME
TODAY.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FIX AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH WAS
ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS...INCREASING
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF
A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS
TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      08/0715Z 20.2N  85.4W    80 KT
 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N  85.7W    85 KT
 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W    85 KT
 36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN

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