[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 84.1W AT 07/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 220
MILES...360 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND ABOUT 280
MILES...460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING N AT 7 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 17.5N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 78W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS JUST TO THE SE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS DRAWING
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N32W TO
16N37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WAVE
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWER ACTIVITY.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 5N20W 7N35W 7N52W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-11N
BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER TEXAS AND SE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW.
THIS FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N92W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 19.5N95W TO 23N96W. THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS SUPPORTED
ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO S MEXICO NEAR
VERACRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE FEATURES
ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
S OF 25N E OF 87W. THE NE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS
TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N74W AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW
ATLC AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W S OF
14N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 75W-79W. THE E
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADEWINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED
ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
24N69W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW TO 24N67W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 32N52W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 54W AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N
OF 26N W OF 52W. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING AN  AXIS FROM
32N30W INTO THE TROPICS TO 15N48W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST
OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W/37W COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-27N
BETWEEN 35W-43W.

$$
WALLACE





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