[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.6N 84.2W...OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS
MOVING NORTH 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT LOTS OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG SHOWERS COVER THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PATTERN IS SHEARING SOME OF THE CELLS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE
WEST OF 69W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W TO THE SOUTH
OF 13N. PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR THIS WAVE IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 41W/42W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N13W TO 7N24W TO 10N40W 11N52W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N TO 16N.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.  A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 6N...IN
AN AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS UNDER UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 21N63W DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN
62W AND 64W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM VENEZUELA TO 22N BETWEEN
66W AND 70W ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM 21N63W DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N68W 23N71W TO THE
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.A.
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
26N73W. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH GIVES A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ENERGY TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N64W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
FROM 31N64W TO 27N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM 23N63W TO 26N60W TO 31N57W. ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N45W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS
NEAR 27N28W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS PERSISTED FOR
AT LEAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF
60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 298N TO 31N BETWEEN 41W
AND 43W.

$$
MT



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