[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 052355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 06/0000 UTC IS NEAR 13.5N
84.0W OR ABOUT 50 NM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MOVING NNW
AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT
MAKING IDA A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM TRACKS ACROSS NE NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER EARLY SAT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 80W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N78W TO 9N80W AND
INTO THE E PACIFIC TO 4N80W. THE WAVE SIGNATURE BECOMES HARDER
TO IDENTIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH TROPICAL STORM IDA.
BROAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE SRN CARIBBEAN IN WHICH THE
WAVE LIES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 80W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N25W 9N38W 11N48W 10N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 16W-30W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR
10N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE LOW
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 36W-40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 15N49W TO 9N49W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SRN
GULF OF MEXICO S OF 27N FROM S FLORIDA TO THE MEXICO COASTLINE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR WRN
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 98W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SE
MISSOURI...AND A 1029 MB HIGH OVER ERN TEXAS. MODERATELY DRY AIR
COVERS THE NRN GULF N OF 28N PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
GULF STATES COASTLINE. WINDS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM IDA REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST TONIGHT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF
T.S. IDA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-15N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
80W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N69W TO
11N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
66W-69W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA COASTLINE S OF 12N BETWEEN 69W-76W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 15N77W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLC INTO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W ALONG
28N70W 26N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE
AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE
NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-28N W OF 74W. THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF
30N OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND NW ATLC...AS WELL AS MOIST SW TO
W FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO NRN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING S OF 28N
WITH AXIS ALONG 64W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 39N31W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS EMBEDDED IN A
LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVER THE ERN ATLC. ONE UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N44W SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-31N
BETWEEN 40W-46W. THE SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N31W
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR 29N32W...AND FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
21W-26W. THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHEARING
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 34W-46W.

$$
WALTON






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