[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA AT 05/1200 UTC IS NEAR 12.8N 83.4W
OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS
NICARAGUA AND ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. THE WINDS OF IDA MAY
REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES/85 KM FROM THE
CENTER. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM 5 INCHES TO 7 INCHES ON THE ISLANDS THAT ARE OFF
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 15 INCHES TO 20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES. A STORM
SURGE MAY RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N74W 12N77W...SOUTHWARD
ALONG 77W INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA...NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE
LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N13W TO 7N30W TO 10N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 9N38W. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 8N TO 15N. A SECOND
TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N TO 16N. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST
OF 90W. THE BASE OF THE LATEST TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA REACHES SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN INTERIOR MEXICO 24N100W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 17N97W TO 13N97W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE
EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE PART TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 94W...
BUT MOST PROBABLY TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N71W
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 16N72W. ONE SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. A SECOND SEPARATE TROUGH IS
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N60W 23N64W 19N65W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. ANOTHER SEPARATE AREA
OF LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE
FRINGES OF THAT CYCLONIC FLOW ARE REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO AREAS OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W TO 25N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N66W 29N70W 27N75W 26N80W.
ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. A SECOND
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 43W. LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
60W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
42W AND 55W.

$$
MT



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