[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 05/0600 UTC IS NEAR
12.5N 83.2W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/85 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. T.S. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IT IS MOST PROBABLE
THAT IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. THE WINDS OF IDA MAY REACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES/85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 5 INCHES TO 7 INCHES ACROSS SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING
FROM 15 INCHES TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD
SLIDES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM SURGE MAY RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N76W 13N77W...SOUTHWARD
ALONG 77W INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN WESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 73W AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST MAY BE RELATED TO THE
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N14W TO 7N30W TO 10N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N
BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST
OF 90W. THE BASE OF THE LATEST TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA REACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SEPARATE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN INTERIOR MEXICO 25N101W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N97W TO 14N97W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR
THE PART TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO
THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N73W
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N75W. THE FLOW ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH HAS SENT SHEARING WINDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...TO AN AREA THAT HAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. A SURFACE
TROUGH GOES FROM 24N63W TO 18N66W ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO
RICO...TO NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 22N IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 30N63W TO 28N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
28N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W.
A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 43W. LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO
THE EAST OF 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W.

$$
MT


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