[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 82.9W AT 05/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 56 NM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY
THURSDAY. LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER
FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 15N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. IDA AS THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 76W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 9N40W 10N52W 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 14W-21W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
23W-34W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
ALONG 36W AND 43W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGHS. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N
BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N85W 21N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SW AND CENTRAL
GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ACROSS S FLORIDA. MOST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED
BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
NW BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DYING FRONT ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF. NE WINDS OF 20-25
KT ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH NW-N WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN
THE FAR SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF COASTLINE AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SRN
GULF ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. IDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S IDA IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BESIDES THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA...ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 84W ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST
SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALSO ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN
65W-75W...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS WRN
HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 9N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN
63W-65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR NW
ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING TO
27N74W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM
25N-27N BETWEEN 77W-81W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS AND WRN ATLC SUPPORTS THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N73W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W CONTINUING
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A
DISSIPATING 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N63W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W INTO THE ERN
CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N36W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N42W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 50W-52W...AND FROM
23N-26N BETWEEN 31W-42W. A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 50W IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ SUPPORTING A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N50W TO 21N32W. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N31W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

$$
WALTON




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