[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W AT
04/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN
ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 81W-84W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 67W-74W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 6N20W 10N43W TO
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-37W...AND FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 28W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND W CUBA ALONG 24N80W 22N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 88W-98W. PRESENTLY...
25-30 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE  THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF
30N BETWEEN 82W-97W. EXPECT..CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW
GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. ELEVEN...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SEE ABOVE. WINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 85W-87W...AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 85W-88W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 60W-62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-82W...WHILE
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 17N TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N65W TO 28N72W. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTS.
MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN
70W-74W. TWO SMALL 1014 MB LOWS ARE CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AT 25N65W AND 24N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE CENTERS. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
39N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
69W-73W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 28W-32W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net