[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N
BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM
4N-7N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE VENEZUELA
COASTLINE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. A 1008 MB IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR
THE LOW CENTER FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 6N22W 8N32W 9N41W 10N53W
10N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 9W-16W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS
FROM 11N30W TO 5N35W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
5N36W. A SECOND EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 12N41W TO 8N42W
SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 10N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS THE SE GULF
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N81W 23N85W 22N92W 18N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SW GULF FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
90W-97W. STRONG NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF AS
WELL. IN FACT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA S OF
21N W OF 94W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING MOIST SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
SW GULF ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW GULF IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N81W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-83W...AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 83W-88W IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED AT 2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM 21N83W TO 19N84W. THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH S
OF CUBA. ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN S OF 17N. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 65W-70W. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS
NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING ALONG 29N74W
28N77W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE S FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N81W
AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 79W-80W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N69W IS PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN
ATLC...EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N61W TO
23N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG 53W IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 51W-55W. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC CENTERED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 28N27W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

$$
WALTON




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