[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE
14N65W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY
TO KNOW IF THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED MORE TO THE WAVE
OR MORE TO THE 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W/78W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N14W TO 10N40W TO 9N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 10N62W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
20W...FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
12N28W 7N31W. THE SHOWERS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 27W
AND 30W MAY BE RELATED TO THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 16N. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 14N65W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF THE
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN
60W AND 66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM MAINLAND
VENEZUELA TO ITS OFFSHORE ISLANDS BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...CLOSE
TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N66W IN NORTHERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N83W INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W...AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 11N82W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH A STATIONARY FRONT...
A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS AT 32N74W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...PURELY NORTHWARD...AND THEN
CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 57W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N53W TO 20N53W TO 12N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N57W
27N60W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N62W...
TO 22N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W...
FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ONE
SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 29N34W. A SECOND SMALL-SCALE
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 29N27W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE
BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONIC CENTERS FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 24W AND
34W. THESE TWO SMALL CYCLONIC CENTERS ARE CAUGHT UP IN
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM 30N30W TO 8N27W.

$$
MT




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