[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM BETWEEN
55W-63W MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS. SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THIS SAME REGION
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE EXHIBITS A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 71W-75W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N40W 7N56W AND CONTINUES
ACROSS VENEZUELA ALONG 8N-9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 10W-28W AND IS CONTINUING TO
BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC S OF 20N E OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 34W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N85W 23N92W
20N94W AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SW GULF
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W. MOST OF THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIRMASS COVERS THE
NW PORTION OF GULF AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS
EASTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE
SE CONUS PROVIDING MOSTLY N-NE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR COVERS THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N80W.
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 14N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE GREATER
ANTILLES...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS
ALONG 9N-10N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE S OF 17N E OF 68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOIST WSW
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT MOISTURE NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLC THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST
NEAR 36N72W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING
SW TO 29N79W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W ATLC WATERS
N OF 28N W OF 78W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 25N72W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
ALOFT E OF 60W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W AND SUPPORTS A 1000
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N59W.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 17N BETWEEN 43W-60W.
STRONG S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG
58W IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS FROM 17N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 45W-58W. A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
48W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W S OF THE
SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N29W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
SAHARA NEAR 23N15W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N25W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ E
OF 28W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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