[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N57W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING TO THE S ALONG 30N57W 27N58W 25N61W. A DYING
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E
ALONG 40N53W 32N49W 23N52W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
19N57W 19N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W 23N74W. THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
33N57W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 30N-36N BETWEEN 54W-59W. SIMILAR ACITIVTY IS ALSO ALONG
THE FRONT N OF 15N BETWEEN 44W-52W...BECOMING STRONG IN SOME
AREAS NEAR THE FRONT FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 47W-51W. IF THE SYSTEM
LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW
THEN NORTHWARD.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N53W TO 10N55W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR 33N57W...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...IS DRAWING THE
MOISTURE TO THE N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 49W-52W...AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 53W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N15W 8N30W 10N51W CONTINUING
ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA TO 11N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 13W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 35W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA ALONG 24N85W 22N90W BECOMING WARM ALONG
21N92W TO 11N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50
NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 85W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 89W-95W. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR 20N102W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
NEAR 22N89W. MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT.
STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF
FOLLOWING THE FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND IT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY CALM EARLY THIS
MORNING AS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR DIPS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE N
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF
86W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CENTERED NEAR 22N89W AND W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW BASIN S OF 13N
BETWEEN 78W-85W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W ALONG 9N81W 11N84W AND INTO
THE E PACIFIC. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST
NEAR 36N75W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N77W EXTENDING
TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING AS A
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 27N73W PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR 33N57W ALONG 30N57W 27N58W
25N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
54W-61W. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAME LOW SYSTEM ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N49W CONTINUING S ALONG 23N52W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 19N57W 19N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W 23N74W. A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND N OF 15N BETWEEN
44W-52W...BECOMING STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT FROM
24N-31N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THE LOW SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS
ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N57W WHICH IS DRAWING
UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. IF THE SURFACE LOW LOSES ITS
FRONTAL PROPERTIES...IT MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
SYSTEM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TO THE E...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR
40N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N57W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN ATLC E OF 24W CENTERED OVER AFRICA
NEAR 23N14W.

$$
WALTON






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