[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 8N MOVING AT 10-15 KT. WHILE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...A SLIGHT CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS
AROUND 5N ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE
EXHIBITS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE AND
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 8N BETWEEN 52W-58W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N24W 3N28W 1N35W AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
11W-19W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6N19W 4N26W 2N38W 4N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR NAPLES
CONTINUING ALONG 25N84W 24N88W 23N92W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N88W ACROSS THE WRN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N91W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED ACROSS WRN CUBA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 82W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE N/CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NRN AND WRN GULF WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. AS THIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LIGHT SLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE S/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG
THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ACROSS WRN CUBA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS SEWD ACROSS
W/CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N BETWEEN
79W-83W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS S OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF A LINE FROM
14N84W TO 9N76W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS TRANQUIL WHILE DRIER AIR AND NW
FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT BETWEEN 63W-82W. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE
TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS REMAIN DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE TYPICAL LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA ANALYZED AS A 1010 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS COULD
PRODUCE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF
72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N77W IN THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JUPITER
TO NAPLES AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 30N TO OVER W/CENTRAL CUBA W OF 73W
ACROSS EXTREME SRN FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALL
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED UNDER MOIST AND UNSTABLE W TO SW
FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER DIVERGENT WIND FIELD. A BROAD UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N60W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N61W TO 18N60W
BUT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ONLY PRODUCING
SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
OVER THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 14N E OF 35W BUT
LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION OR PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N50W AND IS BRIDGING A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE REGION ALONG 31N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
25W-43W.

$$
HUFFMAN





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net